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UWA Business School graduate David Halperin has won the 2010 Undergraduate Prize for the Western Australian Branch of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES). The prize is awarded annually by the society and recognises merit in undergraduate performance in agricultural and/or resource economics.

David won the prize for his Economics honours thesis, titled ‘A New Approach to Forecasting Metals Prices.' The thesis examines a new method of forecasting turning points in the prices of six non-ferrous metals using Bayesian econometric methods, rather than standard econometrics.

The new method takes a different approach to probability, going beyond the frequency of previous outcomes to take into account beliefs, knowledge, and other organisational and environmental variables which could influence the likelihood of achieving a certain outcome - in this case, the turning point of metals returns. David's method proved to have extremely positive results. Over the 2003-2009 period, it produced correct turning points forecasts 80 per cent of the time, in comparison to 71 per cent for the best naïve model. In his thesis, he acknowledged that his research project was inspired by a talk delivered by the late Professor Arnold Zellner from the University of Chicago. Professor Zellner, one of the giants in econometrics, visited the Business School in 2009.

David held a BHP Billiton Honours scholarship and attributes part of his success to the quality supervision of Professor Ken Clements, the BHP Billiton Research Fellow and Head of the Economics discipline.

‘Having Professor Clements as a supervisor was good,' says David. ‘He pushed me quite hard; we had weekly meetings, which is more than usual. He got me thinking deeply about my topic. It's something I would not have thought possible.'

The Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES) is an independent association of persons and organisations interested in agricultural, resource and environmental economics.

The Undergraduate Prize in Agricultural and Resource Economics was created in 1988, and students from UWA have now won the Western Australian prize in every one of the 21 years in which it was awarded.

Media references

Heather Merritt
Director, External Relations
UWA Business School
T: +618 6488 8171
E: [email protected]

Verity Chia
Communications Officer
UWA Business School
E: [email protected]